GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3737 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

32 of 1059 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (25 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.40×.

Made2026-10-14 08:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 09:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 08:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27844469855484394,
      "momentum": 0.3379131948591634,
      "diversity": 0.0375
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5875527943476885
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.042986425339366516,
    "share60": 0.030660377358490566,
    "total15": 220,
    "total60": 1059,
    "momentum": 1.402018795683954,
    "diversity": 0.78125,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 32,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 25
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 117,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9948941666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9948941666666666
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5875527943476885
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 09:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.345
Log loss0.886
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.018108651911468814,
  "shareRatio": 0.613281793583301,
  "totalAfter": 994,
  "shareBefore": 0.029878618113912233,
  "totalBefore": 1071,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 18,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 32
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 59% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.99% → 1.81% (-39%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed +0.34 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashbc28c35dd82f7e628e62300d4b91e8a7c7f2b837f2240969c06200de3fb735a6
Previous hash726c463e64ec50128ddacd6f1afb7d1bb2c1623f9681767bc1923988204191f7