Ledger / Prediction #3737 · narrative · 1H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
32 of 1059 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (25 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.40×.
Made2026-10-14 08:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 09:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 08:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.27844469855484394,
"momentum": 0.3379131948591634,
"diversity": 0.0375
},
"rawProbability": 0.5875527943476885
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.042986425339366516,
"share60": 0.030660377358490566,
"total15": 220,
"total60": 1059,
"momentum": 1.402018795683954,
"diversity": 0.78125,
"launches15": 9,
"launches60": 32,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 25
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 117,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9948941666666666,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9948941666666666
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5875527943476885
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 09:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.345
Log loss0.886
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.018108651911468814,
"shareRatio": 0.613281793583301,
"totalAfter": 994,
"shareBefore": 0.029878618113912233,
"totalBefore": 1071,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 18,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 32
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 59% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.99% → 1.81% (-39%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed +0.34 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
bc28c35dd82f7e628e62300d4b91e8a7c7f2b837f2240969c06200de3fb735a6Previous hash
726c463e64ec50128ddacd6f1afb7d1bb2c1623f9681767bc1923988204191f7