GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #373 · narrative · 1H

Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 58% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

225 of 2436 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (137 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.23×.

Made2026-10-09 22:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 23:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 22:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.570999373465548,
      "momentum": 0.20579299511242505,
      "diversity": -0.16933333333333328
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.576264919600539
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "quantum",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.11367521367521367,
    "share60": 0.09253180139515799,
    "total15": 584,
    "total60": 2436,
    "momentum": 1.2284988724013113,
    "diversity": 0.6088888888888889,
    "launches15": 66,
    "launches60": 225,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 137
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 390,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918497222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918497222222222
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.576264919600539
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 23:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.332
Log loss0.859
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.05024509803921569,
  "shareRatio": 0.5468123674392485,
  "totalAfter": 2448,
  "shareBefore": 0.09205702647657842,
  "totalBefore": 2455,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 123,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 226
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 58% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 9.21% → 5.02% (-45%). INCORRECT.

— volume misled on "quantum" (1H). volume contributed +0.57 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5cf1d120806bcaf3b3ff79b2b2e3b1e9c04a30b7699ff6050850e12414124148
Previous hash84d0672ea5b937b76de131b6a08b744e524a28c231bc3e6f50e58d486b398ae9