Ledger / Prediction #3727 · narrative · 6H

Will "wrong" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 8% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

43 of 1262 launches in the last hour referenced "wrong" (23 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.04×.

Made2026-10-14 08:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 14:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 07:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3227643304889193,
      "momentum": -3.138793528129159,
      "diversity": -0.258139534883721
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07929839441043118
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "wrong",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.0014925373134328358,
    "share60": 0.0344418052256532,
    "total15": 334,
    "total60": 1262,
    "momentum": 0.04333504889346372,
    "diversity": 0.5348837209302325,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 43,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 23
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 132,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9980002777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996667129629629
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.07929839441043118
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 14:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.006

Log loss0.083

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0016091100383710856,
  "shareRatio": 0.20710504444605046,
  "totalAfter": 8079,
  "shareBefore": 0.00800942285041225,
  "totalBefore": 8490,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 13,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 68
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 8% that "wrong" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.80% → 0.16% (-80%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "wrong" (6H). momentum contributed -3.14 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1a8bbba28881d61ed06ac13a95ce8e441e246589fa0eab4102a8bf6646521a31

Previous hash8a19a1b18dd12daed74c412be308f8ad636bd5829d730730f93b7bba275b4b36