Ledger / Prediction #3722 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

45 of 1262 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (22 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.28×.

Made2026-10-14 08:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 09:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 07:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3295836866004329,
      "momentum": 0.2502422884937208,
      "diversity": -0.31333333333333335
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.49162394410542387
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.04626865671641791,
    "share60": 0.03602533650039588,
    "total15": 334,
    "total60": 1262,
    "momentum": 1.2843365589634246,
    "diversity": 0.4888888888888889,
    "launches15": 15,
    "launches60": 45,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 22
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 132,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9980002777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9980002777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.49162394410542387
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 09:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.258

Log loss0.710

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.06393606393606394,
  "shareRatio": 1.791077186286767,
  "totalAfter": 1001,
  "shareBefore": 0.03557312252964427,
  "totalBefore": 1265,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 64,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 45
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 49% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.56% → 6.39% (+80%). INCORRECT.

— diversity misled on "uxento" (1H). diversity contributed -0.31 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash008b609e28a04c53478f0d8fc79fb88931a2e0902ae500ddc8375007a5a7c621

Previous hashacfea7cf1b6d9a7699535290b1996d25530324f944e1f161f3d1eacd990c2a13