Ledger / Prediction #3709 · narrative · 6H
Will "hacchan" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 69% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
55 of 1254 launches in the last hour referenced "hacchan" (32 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 4.01×.
Made2026-10-14 07:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 13:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 07:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.35968429091975557,
"momentum": 1.388687661025731,
"diversity": -0.20181818181818184
},
"rawProbability": 0.6862375412668127
},
"features": {
"term": "hacchan",
"rank60": 1,
"share15": 0.17731629392971246,
"share60": 0.044223107569721115,
"total15": 312,
"total60": 1254,
"momentum": 4.0095846645367414,
"diversity": 0.5818181818181818,
"launches15": 55,
"launches60": 55,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 32
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 112,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9926436111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987739351851852
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6862375412668127
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 13:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.471
Log loss1.159
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0012809017548354041,
"shareRatio": 0.21315283008418254,
"totalAfter": 7807,
"shareBefore": 0.006252842201000455,
"totalBefore": 8796,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 10,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 55
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 69% that "hacchan" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.63% → 0.13% (-80%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "hacchan" (6H). momentum contributed +1.39 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
dab31f1a5b51dd35a77744f3e56bb61ec5408d8acefd74bf05e99a15de386a61Previous hash
ce206d1074e2fad0527163a9eef442a4968a7d5aba4c57a02a801e2b960ba652