Ledger / Prediction #3706 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

54 of 1254 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (38 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.99×.

Made2026-10-14 07:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 08:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 07:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35693192011952607,
      "momentum": -0.0068233551990836225,
      "diversity": -0.05555555555555553
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4986382557080996
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.04313099041533546,
    "share60": 0.04342629482071713,
    "total15": 312,
    "total60": 1254,
    "momentum": 0.9931998710320368,
    "diversity": 0.7037037037037037,
    "launches15": 13,
    "launches60": 54,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 38
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 112,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926436111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9926436111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4986382557080996
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 08:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.251

Log loss0.696

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.1111111111111111,
  "shareRatio": 2.5915120498425304,
  "totalAfter": 1071,
  "shareBefore": 0.04265402843601896,
  "totalBefore": 1266,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 119,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 54
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.27% → 11.11% (+160%). INCORRECT.

— diversity misled on "cat" (1H). diversity contributed -0.06 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe989949cf2d9b7b7b4dc11205de3cce349c5e0fb958c67e7146617c2ef8e82c1

Previous hashafd6fec6b390a888903377d99b4243f9484e088555b1471c112bd6594ffb37dd