Will "trench" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 25% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

18 of 1189 launches in the last hour referenced "trench" (4 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.31×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.19214007681930967,
      "momentum": -1.179990023778793,
      "diversity": -0.6333333333333333
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.24776060500303593
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "trench",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.004777070063694267,
    "share60": 0.015546218487394958,
    "total15": 313,
    "total60": 1189,
    "momentum": 0.3072818040970907,
    "diversity": 0.2222222222222222,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 18,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 119,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957744444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998239351851852
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.24776060500303593
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 07:00 UTC.

Integrity