Will "arikuschnir" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 63% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1189 launches in the last hour referenced "arikuschnir" (4 distinct creators, rank #50). Last 15m momentum 3.79×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": 1.3323156001973218,
      "diversity": -0.21428571428571433
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6266684010824999
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "arikuschnir",
    "rank60": 50,
    "share15": 0.02388535031847134,
    "share60": 0.0063025210084033615,
    "total15": 313,
    "total60": 1189,
    "momentum": 3.7898089171974525,
    "diversity": 0.5714285714285714,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 119,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957744444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992957407407408
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6266684010824999
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.0692985297974422,
  "totalAfter": 7625,
  "shareBefore": 0.0008905710787042191,
  "totalBefore": 8983,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 8
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity