Ledger / Prediction #3695 · narrative · 6H

Will "wealth" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 21% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

18 of 1189 launches in the last hour referenced "wealth" (6 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.31×.

Made2026-10-14 07:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 13:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 06:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.19214007681930967,
      "momentum": -1.179990023778793,
      "diversity": -0.5
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.20726431996013847
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "wealth",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.004777070063694267,
    "share60": 0.015546218487394958,
    "total15": 313,
    "total60": 1189,
    "momentum": 0.3072818040970907,
    "diversity": 0.3333333333333333,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 18,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 119,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957744444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992957407407408
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.20726431996013847
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 13:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.628

Log loss1.574

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006950819672131147,
  "shareRatio": 1.2995260381602818,
  "totalAfter": 7625,
  "shareBefore": 0.0053434264722253145,
  "totalBefore": 8983,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 53,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 48
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 21% that "wealth" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.53% → 0.70% (+30%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "wealth" (6H). momentum contributed -1.18 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

— Overconfident: 79% and wrong on "wealth". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash334810d4180a93ba2ff6aa1f47d1471ee8b082491a3e44d83168264df4af7e18

Previous hasha5db93a2efbd7af8284d1fa63ca04465827ef6cebff662a2543c2c62955a4ac6