Will "robinhood" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 32% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

21 of 1241 launches in the last hour referenced "robinhood" (6 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.89×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.21526267879339842,
      "momentum": -0.11282054303541142,
      "diversity": -0.5571428571428572
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3197979010303284
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "robinhood",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.015463917525773196,
    "share60": 0.017310789049919485,
    "total15": 290,
    "total60": 1241,
    "momentum": 0.8933109566051307,
    "diversity": 0.2857142857142857,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 21,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 118,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990736111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990736111111111
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3197979010303284
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00631911532385466,
  "shareRatio": 0.38817202327416894,
  "totalAfter": 1266,
  "shareBefore": 0.016894609814963796,
  "totalBefore": 1243,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 8,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 21
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity