Ledger / Prediction #3673 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 36% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

48 of 1241 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (33 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.57×.

Made2026-10-14 06:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 07:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 06:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3392644647710686,
      "momentum": -0.5586066257199146,
      "diversity": -0.075
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.35563918234035785
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.022336769759450172,
    "share60": 0.03904991948470209,
    "total15": 290,
    "total60": 1241,
    "momentum": 0.5720055266234456,
    "diversity": 0.6875,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 48,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 33
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 118,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990736111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990736111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.35563918234035785
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 07:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.126

Log loss0.439

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.018957345971563982,
  "shareRatio": 0.49598450760380475,
  "totalAfter": 1266,
  "shareBefore": 0.038616251005631534,
  "totalBefore": 1243,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 24,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 48
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 36% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.86% → 1.90% (-51%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed -0.56 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4fca2e8f7324907199de6af2b87e1015fe8eb9c343ba7fe8894982e1c2183734

Previous hash6233c3aedd479b91bde3551cb689a412ff417a59b9a48566917b2dacedb6e840