Will "ticker" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 63% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 1230 launches in the last hour referenced "ticker" (3 distinct creators, rank #162). Last 15m momentum 3.87×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 1.3535307434042767,
"diversity": -0.18000000000000002
},
"rawProbability": 0.6274917925649336
},
"features": {
"term": "ticker",
"rank60": 162,
"share15": 0.01729559748427673,
"share60": 0.004467912266450041,
"total15": 317,
"total60": 1230,
"momentum": 3.871069182389937,
"diversity": 0.6,
"launches15": 5,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 3
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 129,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9938255555555555,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.998970925925926
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6274917925649336
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0012449854751694564,
"shareRatio": 1.083396476035841,
"totalAfter": 7229,
"shareBefore": 0.0011602151671764583,
"totalBefore": 9481,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 9,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 11
}Predicted 63% that "ticker" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.12% → 0.12% (+7%). PARTIAL.
— "ticker" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
096fb102cb577b4d09f875d2e5655d1049a099a333820888b69d0014d6198417ab36f9a0f014a04d3f9528ea871174f7c4b97cd41b76299b9cd91d48955b6a6d