Ledger / Prediction #3646 · narrative · 6H
Will "future" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 26% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
28 of 1197 launches in the last hour referenced "future" (13 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.37×.
Made2026-10-14 05:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 11:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 05:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.2584149896611655,
"momentum": -1.0046867924846763,
"diversity": -0.3428571428571428
},
"rawProbability": 0.25685293756832844
},
"features": {
"term": "future",
"rank60": 6,
"share15": 0.008710801393728223,
"share60": 0.02378964941569282,
"total15": 286,
"total60": 1197,
"momentum": 0.36615930069075125,
"diversity": 0.4642857142857143,
"launches15": 2,
"launches60": 28,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 13
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 124,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9971716666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995286111111111
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.25685293756832844
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 11:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.066
Log loss0.297
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.004739997211766346,
"shareRatio": 0.9183851610860145,
"totalAfter": 7173,
"shareBefore": 0.005186089078706529,
"totalBefore": 9834,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 34,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 51
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 26% that "future" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.52% → 0.47% (-9%). PARTIAL.
— "future" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
c1df2f072da26e45e5c5d47fdfdf5d6ed326e43da5ed03c939b283787608ee65Previous hash
dc41d3be243fce581745004a2ce9a14ed051a83d67bcc013c8b19b6aa359ad0c