Ledger / Prediction #3644 · narrative · 1H

Will "ilysm" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 23% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1197 launches in the last hour referenced "ilysm" (4 distinct creators, rank #114). Last 15m momentum 0.38×.

Made2026-10-14 05:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 06:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 05:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": -0.968968709882597,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2298835767213883
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "ilysm",
    "rank60": 114,
    "share15": 0.0017421602787456446,
    "share60": 0.004590984974958264,
    "total15": 286,
    "total60": 1197,
    "momentum": 0.3794741843522331,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 124,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971716666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9971716666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2298835767213883
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 06:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.053

Log loss0.261

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0016090104585679806,
  "shareRatio": 0.4391990646009938,
  "totalAfter": 1243,
  "shareBefore": 0.004163197335553705,
  "totalBefore": 1201,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 23% that "ilysm" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.42% → 0.16% (-61%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "ilysm" (1H). momentum contributed -0.97 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash17c96664b1f86f8754e244e1c2e8a878802921c46634f28fa6708b45310bb173

Previous hash0ed61da5130252ab402e4c9402d899771c10b80d69e90b61f1fc6103397870e9