Will "discovering" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 27% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
11 of 1477 launches in the last hour referenced "discovering" (7 distinct creators, rank #43). Last 15m momentum 0.24×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.11826860405464054,
"momentum": -1.4167789404072246,
"diversity": -0.13636363636363638
},
"rawProbability": 0.2655269450920325
},
"features": {
"term": "discovering",
"rank60": 43,
"share15": 0.0018867924528301887,
"share60": 0.007780784844384303,
"total15": 264,
"total60": 1477,
"momentum": 0.2424938474159147,
"diversity": 0.6363636363636364,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 11,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 7
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 175,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9918669444444445,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996611226851851
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.2655269450920325
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.00009855615236781156,
"shareRatio": 0.15407114874924766,
"totalAfter": 40586,
"shareBefore": 0.000708215297450425,
"totalBefore": 43772,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 4,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 31
}Predicted 27% that "discovering" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.07% → 0.01% (-86%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "discovering" (24H). momentum contributed -1.42 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
975064c5c377153c78f45cdd0860df406590a6a325fb13ade5df6730daa8a73f9dc95750163d97acfebf5630f186d081565d5823eadc13e2855d492ee71f95df