Ledger / Prediction #363 · narrative · 1H

Will "tiktok" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 8% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

38 of 2460 launches in the last hour referenced "tiktok" (6 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.18×.

Made2026-10-09 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 23:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 21:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3042222370938428,
      "momentum": -1.715391506960363,
      "diversity": -0.7105263157894736
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.08153319050415651
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tiktok",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.0028142589118198874,
    "share60": 0.01564404713531085,
    "total15": 532,
    "total60": 2460,
    "momentum": 0.17989327745425304,
    "diversity": 0.15789473684210525,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 38,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 455,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946558333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9946558333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.08153319050415651
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 23:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.007

Log loss0.085

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0015180265654648956,
  "shareRatio": 0.10969986007922275,
  "totalAfter": 2635,
  "shareBefore": 0.015365952284674484,
  "totalBefore": 2473,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 38
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 8% that "tiktok" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.54% → 0.15% (-90%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "tiktok" (1H). momentum contributed -1.72 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash34dc25c241da4e3cd82be1ce22daf082b252833fd43e0478835aaba7969a1af0

Previous hash45b4e876cfbd8186bc72c068c2ca5686fa5d0b0f5c528dbb9b9a80c3e0b7530c