Ledger / Prediction #3629 · narrative · 6H

Will "usepaid" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 20% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

41 of 1477 launches in the last hour referenced "usepaid" (21 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.20×.

Made2026-10-14 05:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 11:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 04:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3156201231405311,
      "momentum": -1.6015130436065634,
      "diversity": -0.28536585365853656
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.19783497310629708
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "usepaid",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.005660377358490566,
    "share60": 0.02807848443843031,
    "total15": 264,
    "total60": 1477,
    "momentum": 0.20159127074335076,
    "diversity": 0.5121951219512195,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 41,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 21
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 175,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918669444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9986444907407407
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.19783497310629708
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 11:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.039

Log loss0.220

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006482525366403607,
  "shareRatio": 0.8397356310532488,
  "totalAfter": 7096,
  "shareBefore": 0.007754220651747154,
  "totalBefore": 10188,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 46,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 79
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 20% that "usepaid" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.78% → 0.65% (-16%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "usepaid" (6H). momentum contributed -1.60 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha66cd2bbfbae832a6399e421862ee660750d4bf3c837471c82edc8ff1b122788

Previous hash19700438544fb36a2fce984389c0d0863c9a0cb51f2dec8c38a20be05633df80