Ledger / Prediction #3628 · narrative · 1H

Will "rocket" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 1477 launches in the last hour referenced "rocket" (5 distinct creators, rank #94). Last 15m momentum 2.30×.

Made2026-10-14 05:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 04:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": 0.8314120805210223,
      "diversity": -0.15
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6110938813108795
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "rocket",
    "rank60": 94,
    "share15": 0.013207547169811321,
    "share60": 0.005751014884979702,
    "total15": 264,
    "total60": 1477,
    "momentum": 2.296559378468369,
    "diversity": 0.625,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 175,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918669444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918669444444445
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6110938813108795
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 06:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.373

Log loss0.944

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.003236245954692557,
  "shareRatio": 0.6419706120119834,
  "totalAfter": 1236,
  "shareBefore": 0.00533689126084056,
  "totalBefore": 1499,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 8
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 61% that "rocket" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.53% → 0.32% (-39%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "rocket" (1H). momentum contributed +0.83 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash19700438544fb36a2fce984389c0d0863c9a0cb51f2dec8c38a20be05633df80

Previous hash5c97db3eb22dece61fb71b2c7d8d4f0cf2c8098556b36ea587cd7631a3dfefaa