Ledger / Prediction #3627 · narrative · 1H

Will "shiba" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 32% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

41 of 1477 launches in the last hour referenced "shiba" (31 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.47×.

Made2026-10-14 05:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 04:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3156201231405311,
      "momentum": -0.7542151832193597,
      "diversity": 0.007317073170731714
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.32491434466284697
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "shiba",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.013207547169811321,
    "share60": 0.02807848443843031,
    "total15": 264,
    "total60": 1477,
    "momentum": 0.47037963173448516,
    "diversity": 0.7560975609756098,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 41,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 31
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 175,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918669444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918669444444445
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.32491434466284697
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 06:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.106

Log loss0.393

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00889967637540453,
  "shareRatio": 0.3360247781749472,
  "totalAfter": 1236,
  "shareBefore": 0.027351567711807873,
  "totalBefore": 1499,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 11,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 41
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 32% that "shiba" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.74% → 0.89% (-67%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "shiba" (1H). momentum contributed -0.75 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5c97db3eb22dece61fb71b2c7d8d4f0cf2c8098556b36ea587cd7631a3dfefaa

Previous hash1348881f9d9135a0fe64bde71b438a610615f4fd175c9eb6ce079e53c5ff60ec