Ledger / Prediction #3625 · narrative · 1H

Will "ily" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 18% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

55 of 1477 launches in the last hour referenced "ily" (32 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.25×.

Made2026-10-14 05:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 04:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35968429091975557,
      "momentum": -1.381377013356309,
      "diversity": -0.20181818181818184
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.17894510260734883
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "ily",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.009433962264150943,
    "share60": 0.037550744248985114,
    "total15": 264,
    "total60": 1477,
    "momentum": 0.2512323644399116,
    "diversity": 0.5818181818181818,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 55,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 175,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918669444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918669444444445
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.17894510260734883
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 06:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.032

Log loss0.197

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0016181229773462784,
  "shareRatio": 0.05365536088595732,
  "totalAfter": 1236,
  "shareBefore": 0.037358238825883926,
  "totalBefore": 1499,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 56
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 18% that "ily" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.74% → 0.16% (-96%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "ily" (1H). momentum contributed -1.38 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash19097e17647d1c577316e074236da3fceb41e10c1462b1a0b9e5471d7362e70d

Previous hash641f3a8495f2a91a3a6fbd5c20daaf59a339d4d79c17c41189a8ed2ab4131c69