Will "black" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 40% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

57 of 1646 launches in the last hour referenced "black" (39 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.66×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3650420033100675,
      "momentum": -0.4205681445763718,
      "diversity": -0.07894736842105261
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.40272313347382727
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "black",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.02292576419213974,
    "share60": 0.03491196114146934,
    "total15": 457,
    "total60": 1646,
    "momentum": 0.6566736282513764,
    "diversity": 0.6842105263157895,
    "launches15": 10,
    "launches60": 57,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 39
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 201,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954830555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992471759259259
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.40272313347382727
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006448839208942391,
  "shareRatio": 0.6911387428617511,
  "totalAfter": 6978,
  "shareBefore": 0.009386555418602446,
  "totalBefore": 10547,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 45,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 99
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity