GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3611 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

52 of 1646 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (44 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.34×.

Made2026-10-14 04:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 05:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 04:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.351270870922099,
      "momentum": 0.28944284203557835,
      "diversity": 0.11538461538461536
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.612088184035141
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.0425764192139738,
    "share60": 0.031876138433515486,
    "total15": 457,
    "total60": 1646,
    "momentum": 1.335683094198378,
    "diversity": 0.8461538461538461,
    "launches15": 19,
    "launches60": 52,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 44
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 201,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954830555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9954830555555556
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.612088184035141
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 05:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.150
Log loss0.491
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.03164029975020816,
  "shareRatio": 1.00726566833056,
  "totalAfter": 1201,
  "shareBefore": 0.03151515151515152,
  "totalBefore": 1650,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 38,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 52
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 61% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.15% → 3.16% (+0%). PARTIAL.

— "inu" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf69a01bd27fbb0ed3d79b2eb954b7e07ea7bb06283f9dddb225797ed0719c63e
Previous hash3653767ed4f00cd63c4b96854ef474e6f703ad7d5487ce192c28eb0120da889d