Ledger / Prediction #3609 · narrative · 1H

Will "black" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 39% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

57 of 1646 launches in the last hour referenced "black" (39 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.66×.

Made2026-10-14 04:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 05:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 04:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3650420033100675,
      "momentum": -0.4205681445763718,
      "diversity": -0.07894736842105261
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3930586062458479
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "black",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.02292576419213974,
    "share60": 0.03491196114146934,
    "total15": 457,
    "total60": 1646,
    "momentum": 0.6566736282513764,
    "diversity": 0.6842105263157895,
    "launches15": 10,
    "launches60": 57,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 39
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 201,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954830555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9954830555555556
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3930586062458479
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 05:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.155

Log loss0.499

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00749375520399667,
  "shareRatio": 0.22693337191637128,
  "totalAfter": 1201,
  "shareBefore": 0.034545454545454546,
  "totalBefore": 1650,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 57
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 39% that "black" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.45% → 0.75% (-78%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "black" (1H). momentum contributed -0.42 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd606c51075c1f44d0e058dcce3cb0e1d165eaf79784da2d467553ac2149ff5d7

Previous hash93621f7e9625faea9a41338b2c68e3a900ead7a101874c6971ead6a08c916eb7