Will "buying" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1710 launches in the last hour referenced "buying" (5 distinct creators, rank #131). Last 15m momentum 1.04×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": 0.036302706997567095,
      "diversity": -0.04285714285714284
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4309339200696165
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "buying",
    "rank60": 131,
    "share15": 0.004545454545454545,
    "share60": 0.004383401519579193,
    "total15": 329,
    "total60": 1710,
    "momentum": 1.0369696969696969,
    "diversity": 0.7142857142857143,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 231,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982616666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999275694444445
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4309339200696165
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0029365700861393894,
  "shareRatio": 1.0419654723685323,
  "totalAfter": 40864,
  "shareBefore": 0.0028185797108091384,
  "totalBefore": 43639,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 120,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 123
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity