Will "tiger" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

78 of 1710 launches in the last hour referenced "tiger" (41 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.35×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.41209063713832367,
      "momentum": 0.30306688078766725,
      "diversity": -0.2692307692307692
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.48075036262045395
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tiger",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.06212121212121212,
    "share60": 0.04587960257159556,
    "total15": 329,
    "total60": 1710,
    "momentum": 1.3540050183362284,
    "diversity": 0.5256410256410257,
    "launches15": 20,
    "launches60": 78,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 41
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 231,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982616666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999275694444445
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.48075036262045395
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0023003132341425214,
  "shareRatio": 0.6210287155643818,
  "totalAfter": 40864,
  "shareBefore": 0.003712275716675451,
  "totalBefore": 43639,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 94,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 162
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity