Ledger / Prediction #3599 · narrative · 6H

Will "chapman" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 16% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

51 of 1710 launches in the last hour referenced "chapman" (20 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.15×.

Made2026-10-14 04:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 10:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 03:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34835815804353376,
      "momentum": -1.8903760801298584,
      "diversity": -0.4294117647058823
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.15709536550070985
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chapman",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.004545454545454545,
    "share60": 0.03009935710111046,
    "total15": 329,
    "total60": 1710,
    "momentum": 0.15101500441306268,
    "diversity": 0.39215686274509803,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 51,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 20
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 231,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982616666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997102777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.15709536550070985
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 10:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.025

Log loss0.171

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005499793757734085,
  "shareRatio": 0.12101540487295458,
  "totalAfter": 7273,
  "shareBefore": 0.005065666041275798,
  "totalBefore": 10660,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 54
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 16% that "chapman" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.51% → 0.05% (-89%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "chapman" (6H). momentum contributed -1.89 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8187aaccac951e575c8af6d9af72913b1570a6d19cae2aa4e90958b9227f8ce3

Previous hashd4acd0c8c78245451aa1a666b74bf5f3ccf10ee6433799bc0e3a5a92a632afe6