Will "william" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 15% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

59 of 1710 launches in the last hour referenced "william" (24 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.13×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3702149297207429,
      "momentum": -2.0347705850117523,
      "diversity": -0.41186440677966096
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.14760703876718234
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "william",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.004545454545454545,
    "share60": 0.034774985388661604,
    "total15": 329,
    "total60": 1710,
    "momentum": 0.13071046600458364,
    "diversity": 0.4067796610169492,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 59,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 24
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 231,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982616666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997102777777778
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.14760703876718234
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0008249690636601127,
  "shareRatio": 0.1524256255155348,
  "totalAfter": 7273,
  "shareBefore": 0.005816135084427768,
  "totalBefore": 10660,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 62
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity