Ledger / Prediction #3597 · narrative · 6H
Will "charity" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 30% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
63 of 1710 launches in the last hour referenced "charity" (19 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.53×.
Made2026-10-14 04:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 10:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 03:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3800545220936148,
"momentum": -0.6334971095653872,
"diversity": -0.5380952380952381
},
"rawProbability": 0.29857842303167814
},
"features": {
"term": "charity",
"rank60": 6,
"share15": 0.019696969696969695,
"share60": 0.03711279953243717,
"total15": 329,
"total60": 1710,
"momentum": 0.5307325220711047,
"diversity": 0.30158730158730157,
"launches15": 6,
"launches60": 63,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 19
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 231,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9982616666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997102777777778
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.29857842303167814
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 10:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.089
Log loss0.355
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0019249278152069298,
"shareRatio": 0.2891380913102112,
"totalAfter": 7273,
"shareBefore": 0.006848030018761726,
"totalBefore": 10660,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 14,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 73
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 30% that "charity" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.68% → 0.19% (-72%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "charity" (6H). momentum contributed -0.63 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
86ab7c664c0228d9c4b6a16eb2e08cfdedf86d57b5d21089c49986c07a2aef3dPrevious hash
b5f0a734ece437e2a37c0ac61fe47b182c4f95451cee74a59e3f31148c450436