Will "tiger" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

78 of 1710 launches in the last hour referenced "tiger" (41 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.35×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.41209063713832367,
      "momentum": 0.30306688078766725,
      "diversity": -0.2692307692307692
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5364170861092349
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tiger",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.06212121212121212,
    "share60": 0.04587960257159556,
    "total15": 329,
    "total60": 1710,
    "momentum": 1.3540050183362284,
    "diversity": 0.5256410256410257,
    "launches15": 20,
    "launches60": 78,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 41
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 231,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982616666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9982616666666667
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5364170861092349
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004002668445630421,
  "shareRatio": 0.09472611464968153,
  "totalAfter": 1499,
  "shareBefore": 0.045481049562682216,
  "totalBefore": 1715,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 78
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity