Ledger / Prediction #3588 · narrative · 24H
Will "cute" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 37% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
7 of 1846 launches in the last hour referenced "cute" (4 distinct creators, rank #191). Last 15m momentum 0.72×.
Made2026-10-14 03:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 03:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 03:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.050470835493181924,
"momentum": -0.33422669771642327,
"diversity": -0.21428571428571433
},
"rawProbability": 0.36609162342430746
},
"features": {
"term": "cute",
"rank60": 191,
"share15": 0.0029069767441860465,
"share60": 0.004060638873849486,
"total15": 515,
"total60": 1846,
"momentum": 0.715891472868217,
"diversity": 0.5714285714285714,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 7,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 4
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 312,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9929386111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997057754629629
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.36609162342430746
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-15 03:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.134
Log loss0.456
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0012690355329949238,
"shareRatio": 0.8926217146203969,
"totalAfter": 40976,
"shareBefore": 0.0014238798429139013,
"totalBefore": 43543,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 52,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 62
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 37% that "cute" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.14% → 0.13% (-11%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "cute" (24H). momentum contributed -0.33 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
922cc8103cc0ec23c9caec67dcdfae976bc54688d3a68fa9ff6f945f31c05f26Previous hash
088d73d7806884dbd3587a2f5cf8e3a6fdfdf80e3676cd7b4f594cfce12b0f7c