Ledger / Prediction #3585 · narrative · 24H
Will "altai" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 58% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
99 of 1846 launches in the last hour referenced "altai" (32 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 3.58×.
Made2026-10-14 03:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 03:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 03:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.4478522906550734,
"momentum": 1.2752112147176773,
"diversity": -0.5121212121212121
},
"rawProbability": 0.5757794362354612
},
"features": {
"term": "altai",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.1928294573643411,
"share60": 0.053871142393069844,
"total15": 515,
"total60": 1846,
"momentum": 3.5794573643410854,
"diversity": 0.32323232323232326,
"launches15": 99,
"launches60": 99,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 32
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 312,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9929386111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997057754629629
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5757794362354612
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-15 03:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.332
Log loss0.858
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0028553299492385786,
"shareRatio": 0.7074264904080442,
"totalAfter": 40976,
"shareBefore": 0.004041981489562042,
"totalBefore": 43543,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 117,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 176
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 58% that "altai" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.40% → 0.29% (-29%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "altai" (24H). momentum contributed +1.28 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
b4d904482078cef0166f9a484f197b7e34a3868d28b6cfa7b4d8b53a0d945301Previous hash
63b25cb46a796fb46a5d039af02a7951eb07818305dbe06a7b35e502f6598a92