Will "accelerationism" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
24 of 1564 launches in the last hour referenced "accelerationism" (21 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 3.02×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.23529238768707678,
"momentum": 1.1056658607147707,
"diversity": 0.15
},
"rawProbability": 0.6095638191453027
},
"features": {
"term": "accelerationism",
"rank60": 11,
"share15": 0.0472972972972973,
"share60": 0.015654952076677317,
"total15": 517,
"total60": 1564,
"momentum": 3.0212355212355213,
"diversity": 0.875,
"launches15": 24,
"launches60": 24,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 21
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 233,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9957569444444444,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998232060185185
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6095638191453027
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0008731929756476181,
"shareRatio": 0.5890821309168914,
"totalAfter": 41228,
"shareBefore": 0.0014914072000550673,
"totalBefore": 43583,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 36,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 65
}Predicted 61% that "accelerationism" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.15% → 0.09% (-41%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "accelerationism" (24H). momentum contributed +1.11 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
382f5efd3dd67523902d11502d64615b9dd214317fae75dcc2ad161516dde7e46bc84e73869f4918aa4d2bbe9c8455c4bd392e72709df811274cc48ed243c395