Ledger / Prediction #357 · token · 1H

Will $SCANIT still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 15m ago. X link, website. No hot term.

Made2026-10-09 21:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 22:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 21:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.09583022773245922
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "CCVh6fx8eLcThhwkZDpEtAtE1NANCxSPYFu4h3T1pump",
    "name": "Scanit",
    "symbol": "SCANIT",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 15,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3780.7271975381323,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 889,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.09583022773245922
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 22:31 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.009

Log loss0.101

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-09T21:21:02.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3048.3090316645958,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 4001.8075745180627,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3780.7271975381323,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 7561.4543950762645
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 10% that $SCANIT would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,048, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $SCANIT (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4f0eaca6e52288d46d4435340db2eab928d232807ce1bc4c5828b5ee96ad589b

Previous hashc36e30c547ed4775e9074e3f2c27e255b633c4a49b40265869a668c4d5909e0d