Will "weirdcat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 19% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

15 of 1564 launches in the last hour referenced "weirdcat" (4 distinct creators, rank #29). Last 15m momentum 0.29×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.16479184330021643,
      "momentum": -1.229709055102266,
      "diversity": -0.58
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.1897797325929908
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "weirdcat",
    "rank60": 29,
    "share15": 0.0028957528957528956,
    "share60": 0.009904153354632588,
    "total15": 517,
    "total60": 1564,
    "momentum": 0.2923776310873085,
    "diversity": 0.26666666666666666,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 15,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 233,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957569444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999292824074074
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.1897797325929908
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0022753128555176336,
  "shareRatio": 1.0567873972184596,
  "totalAfter": 7911,
  "shareBefore": 0.0021710086840347363,
  "totalBefore": 11976,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 18,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 26
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity