GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3566 · narrative · 6H

Will "privacy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 62% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

39 of 1564 launches in the last hour referenced "privacy" (27 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 2.49×.

Made2026-10-14 03:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 09:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 02:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3081185600543319,
      "momentum": 0.9106052781433861,
      "diversity": -0.06923076923076925
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6235503357199706
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "privacy",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.06274131274131274,
    "share60": 0.02523961661341853,
    "total15": 517,
    "total60": 1564,
    "momentum": 2.485826694687454,
    "diversity": 0.6923076923076923,
    "launches15": 32,
    "launches60": 39,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 27
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 233,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957569444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999292824074074
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6235503357199706
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 09:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.389
Log loss0.977
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0020225003160156746,
  "shareRatio": 0.38724516189714764,
  "totalAfter": 7911,
  "shareBefore": 0.005344021376085505,
  "totalBefore": 11976,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 16,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 64
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 62% that "privacy" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.53% → 0.20% (-62%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "privacy" (6H). momentum contributed +0.91 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5ef4de6705b06f893d905a5aace1ad049484ef25de30ad73fdc45debfd7e9b18
Previous hashd5366f708402ff7ae819b5b41d81dbfe93224c74cf501136456f68358c061aed