GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3562 · narrative · 1H

Will "privacy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 70% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

39 of 1564 launches in the last hour referenced "privacy" (27 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 2.49×.

Made2026-10-14 03:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 04:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 02:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3081185600543319,
      "momentum": 0.9106052781433861,
      "diversity": -0.06923076923076925
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7004607913100951
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "privacy",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.06274131274131274,
    "share60": 0.02523961661341853,
    "total15": 517,
    "total60": 1564,
    "momentum": 2.485826694687454,
    "diversity": 0.6923076923076923,
    "launches15": 32,
    "launches60": 39,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 27
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 233,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957569444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957569444444444
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7004607913100951
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 04:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.491
Log loss1.206
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005830903790087463,
  "shareRatio": 0.03498716473400018,
  "totalAfter": 1715,
  "shareBefore": 0.024683544303797468,
  "totalBefore": 1580,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 39
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 70% that "privacy" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.47% → 0.06% (-98%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "privacy" (1H). momentum contributed +0.91 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash20cc188dd6530185acf76d0604d2892ed421457b423588e77221082aaaaf2812
Previous hash0ed82e1982d6e8c5309dbf93aa2d2f86c7497437b11953a1f51403c1df2a37c7