Ledger / Prediction #3562 · narrative · 1H
Will "privacy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 70% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
39 of 1564 launches in the last hour referenced "privacy" (27 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 2.49×.
Made2026-10-14 03:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 04:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 02:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3081185600543319,
"momentum": 0.9106052781433861,
"diversity": -0.06923076923076925
},
"rawProbability": 0.7004607913100951
},
"features": {
"term": "privacy",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.06274131274131274,
"share60": 0.02523961661341853,
"total15": 517,
"total60": 1564,
"momentum": 2.485826694687454,
"diversity": 0.6923076923076923,
"launches15": 32,
"launches60": 39,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 27
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 233,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9957569444444444,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957569444444444
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.7004607913100951
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 04:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.491
Log loss1.206
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0005830903790087463,
"shareRatio": 0.03498716473400018,
"totalAfter": 1715,
"shareBefore": 0.024683544303797468,
"totalBefore": 1580,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 1,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 39
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 70% that "privacy" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.47% → 0.06% (-98%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "privacy" (1H). momentum contributed +0.91 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
20cc188dd6530185acf76d0604d2892ed421457b423588e77221082aaaaf2812Previous hash
0ed82e1982d6e8c5309dbf93aa2d2f86c7497437b11953a1f51403c1df2a37c7