Will "ocat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

23 of 1584 launches in the last hour referenced "ocat" (18 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.69×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.22890844552425738,
      "momentum": -0.36484338395357135,
      "diversity": 0.03913043478260873
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.41376992439875104
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "ocat",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.010294117647058823,
    "share60": 0.014826498422712935,
    "total15": 339,
    "total60": 1584,
    "momentum": 0.6943053817271589,
    "diversity": 0.782608695652174,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 23,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 18
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 181,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9988172222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999507175925926
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.41376992439875104
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00019309678976587013,
  "shareRatio": 0.2149092132571705,
  "totalAfter": 41430,
  "shareBefore": 0.0009431575073037197,
  "totalBefore": 43471,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 8,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 41
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity