Ledger / Prediction #3541 · token · 1H

Will $UNICORN still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 23m ago. No social links. Rides hot term "embryo".

Made2026-10-14 02:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 01:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.06633258836535354
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "CUuaPnzYvRRQR6T9Gqtur9vsaQtS56BBkdVkdYeapump",
    "name": "The Embryo Corporation",
    "symbol": "UNICORN",
    "hotTerms": [
      "embryo",
      "corporation",
      "unicorn"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 23,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 7362.4310319116,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 593,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.06633258836535354
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 03:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.004

Log loss0.069

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T01:42:35.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2993.4747746451044,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 7390.051579549103,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 7362.4310319116,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 14724.8620638232
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 7% that $UNICORN would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,993, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $UNICORN (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd61cb77f69e7f89794c42f4223a58fb6bb157df9285e2370ad9c78393594e16d

Previous hashd619d5d9089365cbd50f5c31a13d19c88fe592145f0e54df30a68d007bd5aba7