Ledger / Prediction #3538 · narrative · 24H

Will "paid" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

36 of 1747 launches in the last hour referenced "paid" (25 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 2.58×.

Made2026-10-14 02:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 02:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 01:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2961121539033014,
      "momentum": 0.9463864260963389,
      "diversity": -0.0666666666666667
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5714858482383098
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "paid",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.05379746835443038,
    "share60": 0.020881006864988557,
    "total15": 473,
    "total60": 1747,
    "momentum": 2.5763828680423098,
    "diversity": 0.6944444444444444,
    "launches15": 25,
    "launches60": 36,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 25
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 228,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.993535,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999730625
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5714858482383098
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 02:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.184

Log loss0.559

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.007871354066061426,
  "shareRatio": 1.338890091416069,
  "totalAfter": 41416,
  "shareBefore": 0.005876546610655832,
  "totalBefore": 43563,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 326,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 256
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 57% that "paid" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.59% → 0.79% (+34%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "paid" (24H). momentum contributed +0.95 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashcbb6fb45a37b76ec2ed1cb9f33bc860c6be9a7c8c799c81f865403be7808ca57

Previous hashfb9ed47cc4d6191386289719d3ea68abffb2e87ee3a339919993bcc279a5a673