Ledger / Prediction #3536 · narrative · 6H

Will "burn" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 38% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1747 launches in the last hour referenced "burn" (5 distinct creators, rank #106). Last 15m momentum 0.74×.

Made2026-10-14 02:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 08:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 01:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -0.3044176779136961,
      "diversity": -0.04285714285714284
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3757181261117867
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "burn",
    "rank60": 106,
    "share15": 0.0031645569620253164,
    "share60": 0.004290617848970252,
    "total15": 473,
    "total60": 1747,
    "momentum": 0.7375527426160338,
    "diversity": 0.7142857142857143,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 228,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.993535,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989225
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3757181261117867
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 08:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.141

Log loss0.471

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0012956419316843344,
  "shareRatio": 0.5602813810327649,
  "totalAfter": 8490,
  "shareBefore": 0.0023791250959324635,
  "totalBefore": 13030,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 11,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 31
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 38% that "burn" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.24% → 0.13% (-46%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "burn" (6H). momentum contributed -0.30 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5f1a810cb4329368f048e4016bc5a6d62d1222adf66d083d50edb74aa5522772

Previous hash0049b459597046b26ab2436f313d11c938c4697d65b682118e1265e7d221570c