Ledger / Prediction #3532 · narrative · 1H

Will "style" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 70% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1747 launches in the last hour referenced "style" (5 distinct creators, rank #245). Last 15m momentum 2.35×.

Made2026-10-14 02:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 01:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.8530351107773472,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7012034383954154
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "style",
    "rank60": 245,
    "share15": 0.007383966244725738,
    "share60": 0.003146453089244851,
    "total15": 473,
    "total60": 1747,
    "momentum": 2.3467587265055623,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 228,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.993535,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.993535
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7012034383954154
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 03:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.089

Log loss0.355

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.005063291139240506,
  "shareRatio": 1.7194525904203324,
  "totalAfter": 1580,
  "shareBefore": 0.002844141069397042,
  "totalBefore": 1758,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 8,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 70% that "style" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.28% → 0.51% (+78%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "style" (1H). momentum contributed +0.85 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3899d56030ef657060f8cfa8f0e21c015317d5e829ea43f0a15942633184c073

Previous hashbdfdabf881d424a836d68115518786f5ed1b9dd25cc6cf00eacc0eb36d66e996