Ledger / Prediction #3531 · narrative · 1H

Will "veil" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 34% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

42 of 1747 launches in the last hour referenced "veil" (27 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.56×.

Made2026-10-14 02:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 01:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3192347558773902,
      "momentum": -0.5726816645083754,
      "diversity": -0.1285714285714285
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3358109796196831
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "veil",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.013713080168776372,
    "share60": 0.02431350114416476,
    "total15": 473,
    "total60": 1747,
    "momentum": 0.5640109208240258,
    "diversity": 0.6428571428571429,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 42,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 27
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 228,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.993535,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.993535
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3358109796196831
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 03:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.113

Log loss0.409

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.02278481012658228,
  "shareRatio": 0.9555158685865238,
  "totalAfter": 1580,
  "shareBefore": 0.023890784982935155,
  "totalBefore": 1758,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 36,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 42
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 34% that "veil" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.39% → 2.28% (-5%). PARTIAL.

— "veil" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashbdfdabf881d424a836d68115518786f5ed1b9dd25cc6cf00eacc0eb36d66e996

Previous hash05c1fcedd9503e91294022a715ab7525bc3df9999d99a5775206c27157c27ed7