Ledger / Prediction #353 · narrative · 6H
Will "call" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 20% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
45 of 2648 launches in the last hour referenced "call" (32 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.16×.
Made2026-10-09 21:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 03:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 21:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3295836866004329,
"momentum": -1.849277842323105,
"diversity": -0.046666666666666634
},
"rawProbability": 0.19837963760189536
},
"features": {
"term": "call",
"rank60": 7,
"share15": 0.002702702702702703,
"share60": 0.017176292940732352,
"total15": 554,
"total60": 2648,
"momentum": 0.15735075735075735,
"diversity": 0.7111111111111111,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 45,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 32
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 482,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9921291666666666,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9986881944444445
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.19837963760189536
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 03:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.039
Log loss0.221
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0031946613658952153,
"shareRatio": 0.55980612102049,
"totalAfter": 14086,
"shareBefore": 0.005737863451743924,
"totalBefore": 15511,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 45,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 89
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 20% that "call" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.57% → 0.32% (-44%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "call" (6H). momentum contributed -1.85 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
5f341f75d44acb193a155ab85bd60f860a4c2ca42baeb892ca7d22ffb5c6574aPrevious hash
73c7b1bfcece886321997568a40011fe2380e71c1f98cf899e0a0b32a019d6a3