Ledger / Prediction #3527 · token · 1H

Will $REVERIE still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 16m ago. website. No hot term. Creator launched 152 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-14 01:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 02:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 01:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.030935134330467174
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "5z3FUuz35r2T69erkhHWiwDKXQqvc7QEAu2RwH6Mfomo",
    "name": "reverie",
    "symbol": "REVERIE",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 16,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 8,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3017.0190279721905,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 152
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 549,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.030935134330467174
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 02:31 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.031

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T01:14:01.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3015.845527157621,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3015.845527157621,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3017.0190279721905,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6034.038055944381
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 3% that $REVERIE would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,016, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $REVERIE (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc0215a72c62d00a22b7e911369d782c8bf313a5a95e6c07f97f64de104cefd05

Previous hashc2796941778ef83cd4dd451333b577b24949b67658085573386a4092127901ea