Ledger / Prediction #352 · narrative · 1H
Will "game" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 68% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
8 of 2648 launches in the last hour referenced "game" (8 distinct creators, rank #228). Last 15m momentum 1.97×.
Made2026-10-09 21:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 22:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 21:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.07050054438686033,
"momentum": 0.6756661805247324,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.67834287466864
},
"features": {
"term": "game",
"rank60": 228,
"share15": 0.006306306306306306,
"share60": 0.0032087580218950547,
"total15": 554,
"total60": 2648,
"momentum": 1.9653418124006359,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 3,
"launches60": 8,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 8
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 482,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9921291666666666,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9921291666666666
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.67834287466864
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-09 22:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.103
Log loss0.388
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.008146639511201629,
"shareRatio": 2.6415501053841735,
"totalAfter": 2455,
"shareBefore": 0.0029750836742283376,
"totalBefore": 2689,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 20,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 8
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 68% that "game" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.30% → 0.81% (+174%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "game" (1H). momentum contributed +0.68 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
73c7b1bfcece886321997568a40011fe2380e71c1f98cf899e0a0b32a019d6a3Previous hash
040efc6f2a4e6022a0d676bd91c4543c897cda66a280e9350e07549f977f3b0b