GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #352 · narrative · 1H

Will "game" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 68% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 2648 launches in the last hour referenced "game" (8 distinct creators, rank #228). Last 15m momentum 1.97×.

Made2026-10-09 21:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 22:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 21:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": 0.6756661805247324,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.67834287466864
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "game",
    "rank60": 228,
    "share15": 0.006306306306306306,
    "share60": 0.0032087580218950547,
    "total15": 554,
    "total60": 2648,
    "momentum": 1.9653418124006359,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 482,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921291666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9921291666666666
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.67834287466864
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 22:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.103
Log loss0.388
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.008146639511201629,
  "shareRatio": 2.6415501053841735,
  "totalAfter": 2455,
  "shareBefore": 0.0029750836742283376,
  "totalBefore": 2689,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 20,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 8
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 68% that "game" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.30% → 0.81% (+174%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "game" (1H). momentum contributed +0.68 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash73c7b1bfcece886321997568a40011fe2380e71c1f98cf899e0a0b32a019d6a3
Previous hash040efc6f2a4e6022a0d676bd91c4543c897cda66a280e9350e07549f977f3b0b