Will "unicorn" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
21 of 1637 launches in the last hour referenced "unicorn" (13 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 2.15×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.21526267879339842,
"momentum": 0.7653372035425174,
"diversity": -0.1571428571428571
},
"rawProbability": 0.5686683014024705
},
"features": {
"term": "unicorn",
"rank60": 8,
"share15": 0.028216704288939052,
"share60": 0.013125763125763126,
"total15": 442,
"total60": 1637,
"momentum": 2.1497191453619613,
"diversity": 0.6190476190476191,
"launches15": 12,
"launches60": 21,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 13
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 194,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9965986111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994331018518519
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5686683014024705
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.009322419281491587,
"shareRatio": 3.099204695203331,
"totalAfter": 8796,
"shareBefore": 0.0029888664723903458,
"totalBefore": 13383,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 82,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 40
}Predicted 57% that "unicorn" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.30% → 0.93% (+212%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "unicorn" (6H). momentum contributed +0.77 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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