Ledger / Prediction #3516 · narrative · 1H

Will "limits" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 37% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 1637 launches in the last hour referenced "limits" (4 distinct creators, rank #156). Last 15m momentum 0.85×.

Made2026-10-14 01:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 02:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 01:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": -0.15867557442554786,
      "diversity": -0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.37020736008288274
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "limits",
    "rank60": 156,
    "share15": 0.003386004514672686,
    "share60": 0.003968253968253968,
    "total15": 442,
    "total60": 1637,
    "momentum": 0.853273137697517,
    "diversity": 0.6666666666666666,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 194,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965986111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9965986111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.37020736008288274
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 02:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.137

Log loss0.462

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0006313131313131314,
  "shareRatio": 0.23950497452074737,
  "totalAfter": 1584,
  "shareBefore": 0.0036496350364963502,
  "totalBefore": 1644,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 6
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 37% that "limits" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.36% → 0.06% (-83%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "limits" (1H). momentum contributed -0.16 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7b5827d14a731575c92830f84390d9eae233e40937bcb67200e5c7e9e35e69d0

Previous hashd00f5ac0b817265a5605aec483f561a1c6f11ad1011cc2846fe9d67f0db5f76a