Ledger / Prediction #3510 · token · 6H

Will $BRAIN still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 11% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 29m ago. X link. Rides hot term "autonomous".

Made2026-10-14 01:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 07:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 01:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.11461549863791243
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "GAKp2fQZk3ZLRG4kvL9hVAEz9pTMKRQGu1V6qRcDpump",
    "name": "brainless",
    "symbol": "BRAIN",
    "hotTerms": [
      "autonomous"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 29,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 41,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3007.325256391018,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 568,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.11461549863791243
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 07:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.013

Log loss0.122

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T01:08:20.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2999.2833389617153,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3025.7924299299484,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3007.325256391018,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6014.650512782036
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 11% that $BRAIN would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,999, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $BRAIN (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd7088e90174359bece02a9187b48b5560061e0f335c887cc466d36bda8b7a9a5

Previous hash606a9bcff6a0ab23e92492738cc4493bb4b395f2fff9c31ea900a1ad539e9b67