Ledger / Prediction #351 · narrative · 1H

Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 38% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

47 of 2648 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (32 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.65×.

Made2026-10-09 21:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 22:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 21:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3361064533913937,
      "momentum": -0.4259581586133688,
      "diversity": -0.08297872340425534
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3839465382756884
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.011711711711711712,
    "share60": 0.01793129482823707,
    "total15": 554,
    "total60": 2648,
    "momentum": 0.6531436699857753,
    "diversity": 0.6808510638297872,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 47,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 482,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921291666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9921291666666666
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3839465382756884
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 22:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.147

Log loss0.484

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.015885947046843176,
  "shareRatio": 0.8920296181873132,
  "totalAfter": 2455,
  "shareBefore": 0.017850502045370024,
  "totalBefore": 2689,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 39,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 48
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 38% that "dog" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.79% → 1.59% (-11%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "dog" (1H). momentum contributed -0.43 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash040efc6f2a4e6022a0d676bd91c4543c897cda66a280e9350e07549f977f3b0b

Previous hasha7679a0500bdb81e82006d5da14107245e1e9d37bc8dcf6ed65c36d457f5f4c5