Will "zcash" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1693 launches in the last hour referenced "zcash" (5 distinct creators, rank #143). Last 15m momentum 0.90×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -0.1068352246701115,
      "diversity": -0.04285714285714284
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4134768124907608
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "zcash",
    "rank60": 143,
    "share15": 0.003978779840848806,
    "share60": 0.004427390791027155,
    "total15": 376,
    "total60": 1693,
    "momentum": 0.8986737400530503,
    "diversity": 0.7142857142857143,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 220,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999105555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999962731481481
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4134768124907608
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00045975898949813675,
  "shareRatio": 0.4690696488811273,
  "totalAfter": 41326,
  "shareBefore": 0.0009943805933908378,
  "totalBefore": 43243,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 19,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 43
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity